Forecasting labor market in Lebanon

The IHS is assigned to develop a quantitative forecasting model which anticipates future trends of the supply and demand for labour. The methodology is based on research of the European Training Foundation (ETF), European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) and the International Labour Office (ILO). In our modelling process we apply the top-down approach considering the highest aggregate level of indicators. Our target indicators to forecast are employment and the labour force of the Lebanese labour market. The significance and robustness of forecasts can be enhanced by considering more than one model. Therefore, we developed a set of models based on different methodologies. We also consider information provided by other forecasters, namely ILO and the United Nations (UN). Our forecasts are shown in the Figure “Lebanon labour market developments, 2000 to 2030”.

As Lebanon is a small and open economy we look first at global and regional developments that have an impact on domestic macroeconomic and labour market activities. A combination of labour market forecasts will enter in the quantitative occupational forecasting model, where employment is broken down by economic activity, by occupations and by level of education. The labour force, the supply side of the labour market is broken down by educational level. The comparison of labour demand with the supply shows the imbalances of the labour market. The Figure “Lebanon labour market structure, 2019″, shows employment and labour force by level of education. Our analysis suggests that, if structures remain unchanged, particularly persons with an advanced educational level have the risk of getting unemployed as shown in Figure “Lebanon unemployment rate”.

Authors: Robert Kunst (kunst@ihs.ac.at) and Edith Skriner (skriner@ihs.ac.at), Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna Austria (www.ihs.ac.at)

An updated version of “Robert Kunst, Lorenz Lassnigg and Edith Skriner. A quantitative occupational forecasting model for Lebanon, Interim IHS Research Report, April 2022.” will be available in autumn.